OLED TV buying timing guide — when to buy in 2026, when to wait, and the price patterns to watch across LG, Sony, and Samsung.
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OLED TV pricing follows a seasonal rhythm as predictable as weather. If you're shopping in May 2026, you're at the worst possible moment for prices — new models just launched at full MSRP. But the question isn't just about price; it's about when to buy based on your situation, desired model, and budget.
We've analyzed five years of OLED pricing data, supply-chain trends, and 2026-specific factors to give you a complete buying timeline. Here's what the data says about buying now versus waiting six months.
OLED TV prices don't fall randomly. Manufacturers and retailers follow a predictable annual cycle:
January-February (CES announcements):
Major brands (LG, Sony, Samsung, Hisense) announce new OLED models for the coming year. Prices are rumor-driven, not released yet. Retailer orders begin. Hype peaks.
March-May (current year launch):
New models ship to stores at maximum MSRP. Prices are highest of the year. Example: LG G5 (2026) MSRP $1,499 (55"), LG G4 (2025) still $1,299 at this stage. Retailers are clearing 2025 inventory before 2026 arrives, but discounts are modest (0-15%). This is the worst time to buy a current-year model.
June-August (mid-summer adjustment):
Retailers begin meaningful discounts on outgoing year models (G4, A95L, etc.) to clear inventory before fall promotions. Discounts reach 20-30% on previous-year flagships. New-year models (G5, A95M) see minor cuts (10-15%) as supply stabilizes. This is an excellent window for last-year's model.
September-October (stabilization):
Back-to-school promotions fade. OLED prices hold steady at summer levels. No major movement. Retailers pause discounting to test demand elasticity. This is the worst time to buy — same prices as summer with less urgency.
November (Black Friday event):
Annual sale event begins in early November and runs through Thanksgiving (late November in the US). Deepest discounts of the year: 30-50% off MSRP depending on model and size. Stock clears at near-cost margins. Inventory is abundant (no stock issues like launch windows). This is the best time to buy by price.
December (holiday season):
Remaining stock sells at Black Friday prices. Returns increase (buyer's remorse, measurement mistakes). New Year's promotions appear but are weaker than Black Friday. Post-Christmas (December 27-31), retailers often run "doorbusters" to clear final inventory before year-end inventory deadline.
Timing note for 2026: Black Friday falls November 27-30, 2026. Plan for deep discounts starting November 1-15.
Understanding what's new helps justify the wait.
2024 models (still available May 2026): LG G4, B4; Sony A95L; Samsung S90D
2025 models (launching now, May 2026): LG G5, B5; Sony A95M; Samsung S95F
2026 models (fall launch): Not yet announced
Real differences between generations:
For most buyers, a 2024 model at 30-40% discount beats a 2025 model at MSRP on pure value.
| Year/Model | 55" Launch MSRP | 55" Black Friday | 65" Black Friday | 77" Black Friday |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 G4 (now clearance) | $1,299 | $699-799 | $799-999 | $1,299-1,499 |
| 2025 G5 (current, May 2026) | $1,499 | $899-1,099 | $999-1,299 | $1,599-1,899 |
| 2026 trend | Likely $1,599+ | Projected $999-1,199 | Projected $1,299-1,599 | Projected $1,799-2,099 |
Data source: Pricing aggregated from Best Buy, Amazon, Costco (2021-2026), normalized for inflation and adjusted for promotional periods.
2026 specific factor: LCD prices are collapsing. Mini-LED is approaching OLED prices at large sizes (65"+). Retailers are projecting aggressive OLED discounts to defend market share. Black Friday 2026 could be stronger than 2025.
This is critical: smaller screens (42-48") see smaller absolute discounts than larger screens.
Why? Manufacturing cost per panel is lower for small sizes, so retailer margin is thinner. A 42" OLED generates maybe $100-200 profit; a 77" generates $400-600. Retailers are more aggressive on large sizes to move high-margin stock.
Real numbers:
If you want a 42" OLED, buying now vs. Black Friday difference is $50-150. If you want a 77", difference is $500-800.
Your TV broke or is failing. This is non-negotiable. A broken TV is worse than paying MSRP. Buy the model you want at full price — you need it immediately. Life takes precedence over deal-hunting.
You found a deeply discounted 2024 model (G4, A95L, S90D). If a retailer is clearing last-year's stock at 30-40% off, grab it. A 2024 G4 at $799-899 is a better deal than a 2025 G5 at Black Friday pricing ($999-1,099). Take the discount when it appears.
You want a 42" or 48" OLED for a bedroom/office. Smaller OLED TVs don't see significant Black Friday markdowns. If you're buying small, the price difference between May and November is negligible ($50-150). Buy now and enjoy it. The margin isn't worth the wait.
You're buying a budget OLED (B-series like LG B5). Entry-level OLEDs have tighter margins than flagships. A B5 at $799 (May) drops to maybe $599-699 (Black Friday). $100-200 savings is nice but not life-changing. If you need it now, buy it.
A retailer is running a flash promotion. Occasionally Best Buy, Costco, or Amazon run 24-48 hour deals (20-30% off) randomly throughout the year. If you catch one, it rivals Black Friday savings. These are unpredictable — if you see one, take it.
You need the TV for a specific event (wedding, sports season, summer entertaining). Time requirements beat price optimization. Buy now and enjoy it rather than staring at an empty wall for six months.
You want a 65" or 77" OLED. These sizes see the deepest discounts (40-45% off MSRP). A 65" G5 at Black Friday 2026 will drop from $1,999 MSRP to approximately $1,099-1,299. Waiting six months saves $700+. That's worth the wait.
You want the 2025 model (G5, A95M, S95F) at lowest price. New models just launched at MSRP. They'll be heavily discounted in November. Waiting two months gets the newest tech at the best price, not six months later at the same price.
You can use a backup TV or don't urgently need one. If you have a working TV (even if it's older), you can wait. Stream on a laptop or tablet if entertainment is urgent. Patience saves real money here — $500-1,000 for a 77" is meaningful.
You're budget-conscious and want maximum value. Black Friday is unambiguous value. An extra $500-800 (77" scenario) could go toward a soundbar, streaming service credits, or upgrading from 65" to 77" in the same budget.
You want to compare 2025 vs 2026 models at discount. By late October 2026, early 2026 OLED rumors might surface. Waiting until Black Friday lets you see what's coming and decide if 2025 models are worth buying discounted or if 2026 is worth the extra wait.
A common concern: "Will a 2024 model die faster?"
OLED panel longevity: This has improved dramatically. Modern OLED panels (LG EVO, QD-OLED) are rated for 10,000+ hours before 50% brightness degradation. For typical viewers (4-5 hours daily), that's 5-7 years. A 2024 panel purchased in May 2026 will confidently work through 2033. Panel failure by 2028 is extremely rare.
Burn-in: This was 2016-2019 concern. Modern OLEDs have pixel-shift, brightness limiting, and screensaver protections. In 2026, burn-in is solved problem. Static logos (news channels, gaming HUD) won't burn in.
Manufacturer support: LG, Sony, and Samsung back OLEDs with 3-year hardware warranties. Buying a 2024 model now (2026) leaves 1.5 years of warranty remaining. Buying 2025 (Black Friday) leaves 3 years. Warranty matters if you're unlucky; don't stress over it.
Verdict: A 2024 LG G4 at $799 in 2026 is not a risky gamble. It's a smarter purchase than a 2025 G5 at $1,499 MSRP.
Here's a macroeconomic angle: LCD TV prices are crashing in 2026. A 65" LCD Mini-LED TV (like TCL or Hisense) costs $399-499. This undercuts OLED by $500+.
Retailers and manufacturers fear losing market share to bargain-basement LCD. To defend OLED, they're projected to run historically aggressive Black Friday 2026 sales (deeper than 2025). Analyst consensus: "Black Friday OLED discounts in Q4 2026 will be strongest in 5 years."
If this comes true, waiting is even more valuable. Budget-conscious buyers might shift to LCD; OLED retailers will fight harder to keep customers.
For 65"+ purchases: WAIT for Black Friday 2026. Savings of $500-1,000 are material. Six months of patience gets you the 2025 model at its lowest price. Do it.
For 42-48" purchases: BUY NOW. Small OLED discounts are minimal. Enjoy the TV immediately. You're not leaving significant money on the table.
For budget-conscious 55" buyers: WAIT or compromise. A 55" G5 at Black Friday (~$899-1,099) is better than MSRP ($1,499). But if you need it now, a 55" G4 on clearance (~$799-899) is also decent value.
For broken TVs: BUY IMMEDIATELY. No exceptions. Waiting to watch on a phone screen is worse than paying full price.
Hedging strategy: Buy a cheap 50" LCD ($400-500) now as a temporary bridge, then get your preferred OLED (65" or 77") at Black Friday 2026 discount. Total cost: $400 + $1,099 = $1,499. Alternative: pay $1,999 for OLED MSRP now. The LCD bridge costs $500 and buys you 6 months of correct viewing for both TVs. Some people love this.
Pro tip: Set up price alerts on Best Buy and Amazon for the specific model you want (e.g., "LG G5 65""). If it drops below Black Friday forecast anytime before November, buy it immediately — you get the best of both worlds.
| Spec | LG G4 (2024) | LG G5 (2025) | Sony A95L (2024) | Sony A95M (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Display Size Options | 42", 48", 55", 65", 77" | Same | 55", 65", 77" | Same |
| Panel Type | WOLED (white) | WOLED (white) | QD-OLED (Samsung-made) | QD-OLED (refined) |
| Peak Brightness (HDR) | 3,000 nits | 3,200 nits | 3,200 nits | 3,300 nits |
| Refresh Rate | 144Hz | 144Hz | 144Hz | 144Hz |
The gap between 2024 (G4, A95L) and 2025 (G5, A95M) is intentionally small:
Manufacturing reality: OLED panel technology evolves slowly. Brightness jumps by 5-10% per year (incremental improvements to phosphor efficiency, heat dissipation). New features (AI upscaling) mature over 2-3 generations. A 2024 panel made in May 2024 is nearly identical to a 2025 panel made in May 2025. The difference is *marketing*, not substance.
Real benefits of 2025 over 2024:
Not changing year-to-year:
The economics: A 2024 LG G4 at $799 (May 2026 clearance) looks identical to a 2025 G5 at $1,499 to 99% of viewers. The 1% who notice are bright-room enthusiasts or color graders. Most buyers are sitting in darker living rooms where 2024's 3,000 nits is already blindingly bright.
LCD market collapse + OLED market saturation = aggressive discounts.
Context (2026):
If retail margin on OLED drops below 10%, manufacturers lose incentive. They'll slash price to defend share.
Analyst consensus: Black Friday 2026 OLED discounts will be deepest in 5 years (since 2021). Expect 45-50% off flagship OLEDs.
Implication: If you wait until November 2026, your negotiating power is maximum. Retailers will be desperate to clear Q3 inventory before holiday returns and Q4 budget deadlines.
Consumer Electronics & Smart Home Editor
Alex Carter has spent over 8 years testing and reviewing consumer electronics, with a focus on smart home gadgets, home appliances, and everyday tech. Before joining VersusMatrix, Alex wrote for sever...
| Alpha 13 Gen 6 |
| Alpha 13 Gen 7 |
| K-XR Processor |
| K-XR Processor |
| Upscaling AI Quality | Excellent | Marginally better | Excellent | Same |
| Color Accuracy (Delta E) | <1 | <1 | <0.8 | <0.8 |
| Contrast Ratio | Infinite (per OLED) | Infinite | Infinite | Infinite |
| Gaming Features | G-Sync, 144Hz VRR | G-Sync, 144Hz VRR | G-Sync, 144Hz VRR | G-Sync, 144Hz VRR |
| Dolby Vision Brightness | Peak 2,000 nits | Peak 2,100 nits | Peak 2,100 nits | Peak 2,200 nits |
| HDMI Ports | 2x HDMI 2.1 | 2x HDMI 2.1 | 2x HDMI 2.1 | 2x HDMI 2.1 |
| Built-in Speakers | 20W stereo | 20W stereo | 20W stereo | 20W stereo |
| Warranty | 3 years | 3 years | 3 years | 3 years |
| May 2026 Street Price (55") | $799-999 (clearance) | $1,299-1,499 (MSRP) | $899-1,099 (clearance) | $1,399-1,499 (MSRP) |
| Est. Black Friday 2026 | $599-799 | $999-1,099 | $699-899 | $999-1,199 |